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{
  "away": "Yokohama F. Marinos",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0153,
  "explanation": "Away win: 47% against a market price of 48% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals JEF United Chiba 1.31 – 1.55 Yokohama F. Marinos.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nJEF United Chiba's defence (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nYokohama F. Marinos's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nJEF United Chiba's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1, JEF United Chiba 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 27% → 28% (+0.8 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1556092,
  "home": "JEF United Chiba",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4803,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.98",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4651,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1, JEF United Chiba 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 27% → 28% (+0.8 pts); Draw 26% → 25% (-1.2 pts)."
}