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{
  "away": "Kyoto Sanga",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0354,
  "explanation": "Away win: 15% against a market price of 12% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.83 – 1.00 Kyoto Sanga.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 21% (uncertainty ±4.8%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima missing 2.6 regular starters; Kyoto Sanga missing 3.1 regular starters takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 58% → 65% (+6.8 pts); Draw 22% → 20% (-2.6 pts); Away win 19% → 15% (-4.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1556098,
  "home": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1157,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "7.49",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1511,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 58% → 65% (+6.8 pts); Draw 22% → 20% (-2.6 pts); Away win 19% → 15% (-4.2 pts)."
}