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Entry #554: pick published

Hash verified

Necaxa v Atlas: Home win 35% @ 2.94 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T03:45:51.976664+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 149a66445c4301d9905c1d3f06b74067805d03669203a22cd4ab4eb0303d2ba7
Stored hash: bc6179d5b9b73cf048c904428bdd150435bbcb9d524f8736566b2bab592a0981
Recomputed: bc6179d5b9b73cf048c904428bdd150435bbcb9d524f8736566b2bab592a0981

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Atlas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0324,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 32% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Necaxa 1.46 – 1.24 Atlas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nNecaxa's defence (1.12× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nAtlas's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nAtlas's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 35% (-1.7 pts); Away win 36% → 38% (+1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 32%; Away win 41% → 42%.",
  "fixture": 1550993,
  "home": "Necaxa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3171,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.94",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3495,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 35% (-1.7 pts); Away win 36% → 38% (+1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 32%; Away win 41% → 42%."
}

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