Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #555: pick published

Hash verified

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Kyoto Sanga: Away win 19% @ 7.49 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T03:46:06.572123+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: bc6179d5b9b73cf048c904428bdd150435bbcb9d524f8736566b2bab592a0981
Stored hash: ea146a862846340921d540a670e7ce5ed394e8527e8c9dcf5883826cc12b7793
Recomputed: ea146a862846340921d540a670e7ce5ed394e8527e8c9dcf5883826cc12b7793

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Kyoto Sanga",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0775,
  "explanation": "Away win: 19% against a market price of 12% (+7.7%).\nExpected goals Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.42 – 1.08 Kyoto Sanga.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 30% (uncertainty ±4.0%), so it carries 50% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's defence (0.85× the league rate against) takes 2.4 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.8 pts from away win.\nSanfrecce Hiroshima's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nRest days (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6, Kyoto Sanga 4) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.7% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 58% (-1.1 pts); Away win 19% → 19% (+0.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1556098,
  "home": "Sanfrecce Hiroshima",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T05:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1157,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "7.49",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.1932,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 7.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 60% → 58% (-1.1 pts); Away win 19% → 19% (+0.6 pts)."
}

#554 #556

Latest entries

635 in total