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Entry #253: pick published

Hash verified

Necaxa v Atlas: Home win 37% @ 2.80 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:08.344239+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ac6d18ab0b6fb752d82f7e0c743e56b177e0b406ed50f20c18ae4203b185de24
Stored hash: faeb6e0d9db0a107ea4eefaca38630a42d69e62d6a9e3647fe8e48ed3fec4f9a
Recomputed: faeb6e0d9db0a107ea4eefaca38630a42d69e62d6a9e3647fe8e48ed3fec4f9a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Atlas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0335,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 33% (+3.3%).\nExpected goals Necaxa 1.40 – 1.20 Atlas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 4.1 pts to home win.\nNecaxa's defence (1.11× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nNecaxa's attack (0.96× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nAtlas's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1550993,
  "home": "Necaxa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T01:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3328,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.80",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3662,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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