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Entry #254: pick published

Hash verified

Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC: Home win 46% @ 2.01 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:10.014376+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: faeb6e0d9db0a107ea4eefaca38630a42d69e62d6a9e3647fe8e48ed3fec4f9a
Stored hash: 26b95b0f6ff6f27e925c45eedd78fdada5bea09a0a4c255c733dbf240010e929
Recomputed: 26b95b0f6ff6f27e925c45eedd78fdada5bea09a0a4c255c733dbf240010e929

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "HFX Wanderers FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0034,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 46% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals Vancouver FC 1.67 – 1.36 HFX Wanderers FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nVancouver FC's attack (0.95× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nVancouver FC's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1517367,
  "home": "Vancouver FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T02:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Canadian Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 479,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.459,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-479-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.01",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4556,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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