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{
  "away": "U.N.A.M. - Pumas",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0103,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+1.0%).\nExpected goals Atlante FC 1.39 – 1.22 U.N.A.M. - Pumas.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nU.N.A.M. - Pumas's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nRest days (Atlante FC 6, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.0%).",
  "fixture": 1550995,
  "home": "Atlante FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T03:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3558,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3661,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}