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Entry #256: pick published

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Club Tijuana v Puebla: Home win 55% @ 1.74 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:14.405619+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 407ec32d0a977e54edad93ad290fa7ffae363b225a34ea4ef7f827252402960a
Stored hash: 79355a4dde5f1b3439490144b19a31a26fcef5f63a638261c41e06034e5e92b6
Recomputed: 79355a4dde5f1b3439490144b19a31a26fcef5f63a638261c41e06034e5e92b6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Puebla",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0004,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 55% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Club Tijuana 1.78 – 1.00 Puebla.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nPuebla's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nPuebla's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nClub Tijuana's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1550994,
  "home": "Club Tijuana",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T03:05:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga MX",
  "league_api_id": 262,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5458,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-262-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.74",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5463,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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