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Entry #257: pick published

Hash verified

Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka: Away win 35% @ 3.07 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:00:17.489599+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 79355a4dde5f1b3439490144b19a31a26fcef5f63a638261c41e06034e5e92b6
Stored hash: 9f3a9a9c3e3d12878e0aab291e7397668c9ff7145c2a8a1de5e2a2df014b3570
Recomputed: 9f3a9a9c3e3d12878e0aab291e7397668c9ff7145c2a8a1de5e2a2df014b3570

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gamba Osaka",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0471,
  "explanation": "Away win: 35% against a market price of 30% (+4.7%).\nExpected goals Shimizu S-pulse 1.12 – 1.36 Gamba Osaka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Shimizu S-pulse 6, Gamba Osaka 4) adds 2.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nShimizu S-pulse's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nGamba Osaka's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1556099,
  "home": "Shimizu S-pulse",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T04:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "J1 League",
  "league_api_id": 98,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3049,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-98-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "3.07",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.352,
  "season": 2027,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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