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{
  "away": "FC Minsk",
  "bookmakers": 2,
  "edge": 0.0245,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 49% (+2.5%).\nExpected goals FC Isloch Minsk R. 1.82 – 0.84 FC Minsk.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nFC Isloch Minsk R.'s defence (0.76× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nFC Isloch Minsk R.'s attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nFC Isloch Minsk R. missing 1.9 regular starters; FC Minsk missing 2.9 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Minsk 3-4-3, FC Isloch Minsk R. 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 52% (+1.3 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-0.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1526004,
  "home": "FC Isloch Minsk R.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T10:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4915,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.93",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.516,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Minsk 3-4-3, FC Isloch Minsk R. 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 52% (+1.3 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-0.8 pts)."
}