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{
  "away": "Arsenal Tula",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0262,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 33% (+2.6%).\nExpected goals FC UFA 1.22 – 0.93 Arsenal Tula.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nFC UFA's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nArsenal Tula's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nArsenal Tula's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC UFA, Arsenal Tula.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 35% (-1.2 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.4 pts).\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1577554,
  "home": "FC UFA",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T11:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3279,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.88",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3541,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC UFA, Arsenal Tula.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 35% (-1.2 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.4 pts).\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}