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{
  "away": "Atletico Madrid",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0351,
  "explanation": "Away win: 53% against a market price of 57% (-3.5%).\nExpected goals Espanyol 1.30 – 1.70 Atletico Madrid.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAtletico Madrid's attack (1.31× the league rate) adds 3.6 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) takes 2.7 pts from away win.\nAtletico Madrid's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nRest days (Espanyol 8, Atletico Madrid 4) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Espanyol 5-3-2, Atletico Madrid 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 23% → 23% (-0.6 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts); Away win 52% → 53% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 24% → 24%; Away win 56% → 57%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1570416,
  "home": "Espanyol",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5687,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.71",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5337,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Espanyol 5-3-2, Atletico Madrid 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 23% → 23% (-0.6 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts); Away win 52% → 53% (+1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 24% → 24%; Away win 56% → 57%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}