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{
  "away": "SV Wehen",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0242,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 39% (+2.4%).\nExpected goals SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.82 – 1.44 SV Wehen.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nSSV Jahn Regensburg missing 2.1 regular starters; SV Wehen missing 2.6 regular starters adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nSV Wehen's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.4%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SV Wehen, SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 41% (+1.2 pts); Draw 26% → 24% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 39%; Away win 36% → 36%.",
  "fixture": 1584042,
  "home": "SSV Jahn Regensburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3865,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.34",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4106,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SV Wehen, SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 41% (+1.2 pts); Draw 26% → 24% (-1.2 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 39%; Away win 36% → 36%."
}