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{
  "away": "Landskrona BoIS",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0377,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 38% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals Falkenbergs FF 1.66 – 1.17 Landskrona BoIS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 39% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nFalkenbergs FF's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nRest days (Falkenbergs FF 6, Landskrona BoIS 7) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nLandskrona BoIS's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Value: our 42% beats the market's 38%.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Falkenbergs FF 4-4-2, Landskrona BoIS 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 42% (+0.8 pts); Away win 32% → 31% (-1.2 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1497721,
  "home": "Falkenbergs FF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3832,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.42",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4209,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 42% beats the market's 38%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Falkenbergs FF 4-4-2, Landskrona BoIS 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 42% (+0.8 pts); Away win 32% → 31% (-1.2 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}