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{
  "away": "York",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0307,
  "explanation": "Away win: 47% against a market price of 50% (-3.1%).\nExpected goals Newport County 1.35 – 1.44 York.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nNewport County's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nYork's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nNewport County's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.1%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Newport County 4-2-3-1, York 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 28% (-1.4 pts); Away win 45% → 47% (+1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1563808,
  "home": "Newport County",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "League Two",
  "league_api_id": 42,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.496,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-42-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.91",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4653,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Newport County 4-2-3-1, York 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 30% → 28% (-1.4 pts); Away win 45% → 47% (+1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}