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{
  "away": "Sarıyer",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 40% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Sivasspor 1.37 – 1.19 Sarıyer.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±8.9%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nSivasspor missing 5.1 regular starters; Sarıyer missing 2.5 regular starters takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nSarıyer's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nSivasspor's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sivasspor 4-2-3-1, Sarıyer 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-1.0 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 31% → 32% (+1.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1585797,
  "home": "Sivasspor",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.399,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.31",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3991,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sivasspor 4-2-3-1, Sarıyer 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 40% (-1.0 pts); Draw 29% → 28% (-0.6 pts); Away win 31% → 32% (+1.6 pts)."
}