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{
  "away": "Juventud",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0386,
  "explanation": "Home win: 33% against a market price of 29% (+3.9%).\nExpected goals Progreso 1.27 – 1.15 Juventud.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nProgreso missing 1.4 regular starters; Juventud missing 3.6 regular starters adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nProgreso's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nProgreso's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Juventud, Progreso.\nOur probabilities: Home win 31% → 33% (+1.8 pts); Away win 42% → 41% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1644699,
  "home": "Progreso",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2866,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.15",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3252,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.9% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Juventud, Progreso.\nOur probabilities: Home win 31% → 33% (+1.8 pts); Away win 42% → 41% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}