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{
  "away": "Mallorca",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0286,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 37% (+2.9%).\nExpected goals Eibar 1.33 – 0.85 Mallorca.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nEibar missing 0.7 regular starters; Mallorca missing 2.5 regular starters adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nMallorca's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nEibar's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.9%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Mallorca 4-4-2, Eibar 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nTag changed from Value to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1569973,
  "home": "Eibar",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3672,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.56",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3958,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Mallorca 4-4-2, Eibar 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities moved by less than half a point.\nTag changed from Value to Avoid."
}