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{
  "away": "Lask Linz",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0578,
  "explanation": "Home win: 17% against a market price of 12% (+5.8%).\nExpected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nAustria Lustenau missing 2.6 regular starters; Lask Linz missing 5.7 regular starters adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Austria Lustenau 6, Lask Linz 3) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nLask Linz's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2, Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 17% → 17% (+0.6 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 62% → 61% (-1.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1561942,
  "home": "Austria Lustenau",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1159,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "7.40",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1738,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Lask Linz 3-4-1-2, Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 17% → 17% (+0.6 pts); Draw 21% → 22% (+0.8 pts); Away win 62% → 61% (-1.4 pts)."
}