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{
  "away": "Albacete",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0058,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 49% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Sporting Gijon 1.44 – 0.96 Albacete.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±5.3%), so it carries 48% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 4.4 pts to home win.\nAlbacete's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nSporting Gijon's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nAlbacete's attack (0.96× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Albacete 3-5-2, Sporting Gijon 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+1.5 pts); Away win 26% → 25% (-1.5 pts).",
  "fixture": 1569974,
  "home": "Sporting Gijon",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4929,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.93",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.487,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Albacete 3-5-2, Sporting Gijon 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+1.5 pts); Away win 26% → 25% (-1.5 pts)."
}