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{
  "away": "NJ/NY Gotham FC W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0315,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 34% (+3.1%).\nExpected goals Washington Spirit W 1.24 – 1.07 NJ/NY Gotham FC W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNJ/NY Gotham FC W's defence (0.76× the league rate against) takes 4.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nWashington Spirit W's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nWashington Spirit W's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Washington Spirit W 4-1-4-1, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 37% (+1.2 pts); Away win 37% → 36% (-0.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1508573,
  "home": "Washington Spirit W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NWSL Women",
  "league_api_id": 254,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3387,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-254-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.62",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3702,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Washington Spirit W 4-1-4-1, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 36% → 37% (+1.2 pts); Away win 37% → 36% (-0.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}