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{
  "away": "Austria Vienna",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0349,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 40% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Ried 1.87 – 1.17 Austria Vienna.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nRied missing 1.7 regular starters; Austria Vienna missing 2.5 regular starters adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Value: our 43% beats the market's 40%.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Austria Vienna, Ried.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 43% (+2.5 pts); Away win 33% → 31% (-2.0 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1561943,
  "home": "Ried",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3997,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.36",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4346,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 43% beats the market's 40%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Austria Vienna, Ried.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 43% (+2.5 pts); Away win 33% → 31% (-2.0 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}