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{
  "away": "Gyori ETO FC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0212,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 48% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Paks 1.79 – 1.69 Gyori ETO FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGyori ETO FC's defence (0.83× the league rate against) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nPaks's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Paks 7, Gyori ETO FC 6) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gyori ETO FC 5-4-1, Paks 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 46% (-0.9 pts); Away win 30% → 31% (+1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1560259,
  "home": "Paks",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4823,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.93",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4611,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gyori ETO FC 5-4-1, Paks 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 46% (-0.9 pts); Away win 30% → 31% (+1.1 pts)."
}