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{
  "away": "Elche",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0362,
  "explanation": "Away win: 17% against a market price of 14% (+3.6%).\nExpected goals Villarreal 1.86 – 1.34 Elche.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nVillarreal's attack (1.35× the league rate) takes 2.7 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) takes 2.6 pts from away win.\nVillarreal missing 6.2 regular starters: T. Buchanan, N. Pepe; Elche missing 2.4 regular starters adds 2.5 pts to away win.\nElche's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Villarreal 4-4-2, Elche 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 64% → 62% (-2.1 pts); Draw 20% → 20% (+0.5 pts); Away win 16% → 17% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 66% → 67%; Draw 19% → 19%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1570422,
  "home": "Villarreal",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1387,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "6.56",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.1749,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.6% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Villarreal 4-4-2, Elche 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 64% → 62% (-2.1 pts); Draw 20% → 20% (+0.5 pts); Away win 16% → 17% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 66% → 67%; Draw 19% → 19%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}