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{
  "away": "Akron",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0279,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 46% (-2.8%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Makhachkala 1.28 – 1.08 Akron.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAkron's defence (1.24× the league rate against) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nDinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nRest days (Dinamo Makhachkala 3, Akron 4) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.8%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Akron 4-3-3, Dinamo Makhachkala 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 43% (-1.3 pts); Draw 27% → 29% (+1.5 pts).",
  "fixture": 1561412,
  "home": "Dinamo Makhachkala",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4609,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.12",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.433,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Akron 4-3-3, Dinamo Makhachkala 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 45% → 43% (-1.3 pts); Draw 27% → 29% (+1.5 pts)."
}