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{
  "away": "FC Gomel",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.005,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 44% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Brest 1.46 – 1.08 FC Gomel.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nDinamo Brest's attack (1.23× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nFC Gomel's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nDinamo Brest's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Gomel 4-4-2, Dinamo Brest 3-5-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 45% (-1.1 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1526003,
  "home": "Dinamo Brest",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4431,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.12",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4481,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Gomel 4-4-2, Dinamo Brest 3-5-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 45% (-1.1 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+0.9 pts)."
}