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{
  "away": "Rochdale",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0165,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 52% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Crewe 1.51 – 1.11 Rochdale.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±7.4%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nCrewe missing 0.7 regular starters; Rochdale missing 2.7 regular starters adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCrewe's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rochdale 4-2-3-1, Crewe 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.1 pts); Away win 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1563805,
  "home": "Crewe",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "League Two",
  "league_api_id": 42,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.516,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-42-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.84",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4996,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Rochdale 4-2-3-1, Crewe 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.1 pts); Away win 25% → 24% (-0.8 pts)."
}