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{
  "away": "Bolton",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.014,
  "explanation": "Home win: 65% against a market price of 66% (-1.4%).\nExpected goals Southampton 2.13 – 1.09 Bolton.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSouthampton's attack (1.25× the league rate) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nSouthampton missing 3.0 regular starters: F. Downes; Bolton missing 4.2 regular starters: C. Forino-Joseph adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Southampton 3, Bolton 4) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bolton 4-2-3-1, Southampton 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 65% (+2.2 pts); Draw 20% → 19% (-0.9 pts); Away win 17% → 16% (-1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1563210,
  "home": "Southampton",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Championship",
  "league_api_id": 40,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6612,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-40-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6472,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Bolton 4-2-3-1, Southampton 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 65% (+2.2 pts); Draw 20% → 19% (-0.9 pts); Away win 17% → 16% (-1.3 pts)."
}