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{
  "away": "Ostersunds FK",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.012,
  "explanation": "Away win: 42% against a market price of 43% (-1.2%).\nExpected goals Sandviken 1.40 – 1.50 Ostersunds FK.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSandviken missing 3.4 regular starters; Ostersunds FK missing 0.8 regular starters adds 2.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nOstersunds FK's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nRest days (Sandviken 7, Ostersunds FK 7) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.2%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ostersunds FK 3-4-3, Sandviken 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 31% (-1.1 pts); Away win 40% → 42% (+1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1497726,
  "home": "Sandviken",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4273,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4154,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ostersunds FK 3-4-3, Sandviken 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 31% (-1.1 pts); Away win 40% → 42% (+1.2 pts)."
}