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{
  "away": "Gnistan",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0444,
  "explanation": "Home win: 62% against a market price of 66% (-4.4%).\nExpected goals HJK Helsinki 1.69 – 1.11 Gnistan.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHJK Helsinki's attack (1.33× the league rate) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nGnistan's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nGnistan's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.4%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1, Gnistan 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 62% (-1.1 pts); Draw 20% → 21% (+1.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1638107,
  "home": "HJK Helsinki",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Veikkausliiga",
  "league_api_id": 244,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6611,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-244-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.44",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.6167,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1, Gnistan 5-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 62% (-1.1 pts); Draw 20% → 21% (+1.0 pts)."
}