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{
  "away": "Istra 1961",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0092,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 41% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.49 – 1.15 Istra 1961.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nNK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack (0.94× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nRest days (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 6, Istra 1961 7) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nNK Lokomotiva Zagreb's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Istra 1961 4-2-3-1, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 42% (+1.2 pts); Away win 33% → 32% (-1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1548543,
  "home": "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4063,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4155,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Istra 1961 4-2-3-1, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 42% (+1.2 pts); Away win 33% → 32% (-1.2 pts)."
}