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{
  "away": "Norrköping W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0011,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 38% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals Eskilstuna United W 1.00 – 0.95 Norrköping W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nEskilstuna United W's attack (0.75× the league rate) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nEskilstuna United W's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nEskilstuna United W missing 2.9 regular starters; Norrköping W missing 2.0 regular starters takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Norrköping W, Eskilstuna United W.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 38% (-1.1 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1495580,
  "home": "Eskilstuna United W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3763,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.41",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3752,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Norrköping W, Eskilstuna United W.\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 38% (-1.1 pts); Away win 34% → 35% (+1.0 pts)."
}