Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Al-Ettifaq",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0068,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 52% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals NEOM 1.59 – 1.03 Al-Ettifaq.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.1%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNEOM missing 3.2 regular starters; Al-Ettifaq missing 3.9 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+11% goals at home) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nNEOM's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NEOM 4-4-2, Al-Ettifaq.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 51% (+2.8 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.8 pts); Away win 26% → 24% (-2.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1603052,
  "home": "NEOM",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:40:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5216,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.79",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5148,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NEOM 4-4-2, Al-Ettifaq.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 51% (+2.8 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.8 pts); Away win 26% → 24% (-2.0 pts)."
}