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{
  "away": "Barcelona",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0313,
  "explanation": "Away win: 66% against a market price of 69% (-3.1%).\nExpected goals Real Betis 1.55 – 2.24 Barcelona.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBarcelona's attack (1.99× the league rate) adds 5.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) takes 1.9 pts from away win.\nReal Betis's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nBarcelona's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.1%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Real Betis 4-2-3-1, Barcelona 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 20% → 17% (-2.8 pts); Draw 19% → 18% (-0.9 pts); Away win 62% → 66% (+3.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 14% → 15%; Away win 70% → 69%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1570413,
  "home": "Real Betis",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.687,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.41",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6557,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.1%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Real Betis 4-2-3-1, Barcelona 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 20% → 17% (-2.8 pts); Draw 19% → 18% (-0.9 pts); Away win 62% → 66% (+3.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 14% → 15%; Away win 70% → 69%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}