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{
  "away": "Pogon Szczecin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.022,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 48% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals GKS Katowice 1.62 – 1.31 Pogon Szczecin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 49% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 4.4 pts to home win.\nGKS Katowice's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nPogon Szczecin's defence (0.93× the league rate against) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nGKS Katowice missing 2.9 regular starters; Pogon Szczecin missing 1.0 regular starters takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2, GKS Katowice 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 46% (-3.0 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 27% → 29% (+2.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1553192,
  "home": "GKS Katowice",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4799,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.96",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4579,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2, GKS Katowice 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 46% (-3.0 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 27% → 29% (+2.2 pts)."
}