Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "HNK Gorica",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.023,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals NK Osijek 1.46 – 0.96 HNK Gorica.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nHNK Gorica's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nNK Osijek's attack (0.91× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nRest days (NK Osijek 7, HNK Gorica 8) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1, NK Osijek 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 55% (+1.4 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.6 pts); Away win 21% → 20% (-0.7 pts).",
  "fixture": 1548544,
  "home": "NK Osijek",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5721,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.65",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5491,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1, NK Osijek 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 55% (+1.4 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.6 pts); Away win 21% → 20% (-0.7 pts)."
}