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{
  "away": "Vittsjö W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0102,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 51% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Rosengård W 1.44 – 1.12 Vittsjö W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRosengård W's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRosengård W missing 3.1 regular starters; Vittsjö W missing 1.0 regular starters takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nRosengård W's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vittsjö W 4-1-4-1, Rosengård W 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 50% (-1.5 pts); Away win 25% → 26% (+1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1495584,
  "home": "Rosengård W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Damallsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 549,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5055,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-549-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4953,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vittsjö W 4-1-4-1, Rosengård W 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 50% (-1.5 pts); Away win 25% → 26% (+1.1 pts)."
}