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{
  "away": "Castellón",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0481,
  "explanation": "Home win: 32% against a market price of 27% (+4.8%).\nExpected goals Las Palmas 1.68 – 1.36 Castellón.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (Las Palmas 6, Castellón 6) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nCastellón's attack (1.16× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nCastellón's defence (0.96× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Castellón 4-4-2, Las Palmas 4-5-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 26% → 25% (-0.8 pts); Away win 42% → 43% (+1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1569977,
  "home": "Las Palmas",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2697,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "3.43",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3178,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Castellón 4-4-2, Las Palmas 4-5-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 26% → 25% (-0.8 pts); Away win 42% → 43% (+1.2 pts)."
}