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{
  "away": "Juventude",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0247,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 33% (+2.5%).\nExpected goals Ceara 1.24 – 1.01 Juventude.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nJuventude's defence (0.82× the league rate against) takes 2.2 pts from home win.\nRest days (Ceara 5, Juventude 6) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nCeara missing 4.2 regular starters; Juventude missing 1.2 regular starters adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.5%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ceara 4-2-3-1, Juventude 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.0 pts); Draw 31% → 30% (-0.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1520931,
  "home": "Ceara",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T19:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3347,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.76",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.3593,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Ceara 4-2-3-1, Juventude 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.0 pts); Draw 31% → 30% (-0.6 pts)."
}