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Entry #726: pick published

Hash verified

Universitario de Vinto v San Antonio Bulo Bulo: Away win 21% @ 4.82 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T20:51:04.382305+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 84e142f4c48596c11bffa82b881f04b903372895b0a4899e2bf2fb9cc63fffaf
Stored hash: 7d9e0f71d0df2e4e2c106224333f77a6b4251b0b27fa6e0e3ffc5314e28df4f0
Recomputed: 7d9e0f71d0df2e4e2c106224333f77a6b4251b0b27fa6e0e3ffc5314e28df4f0

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "San Antonio Bulo Bulo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0321,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 18% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Universitario de Vinto 1.56 – 1.26 San Antonio Bulo Bulo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 30% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+57% goals at home) takes 3.4 pts from away win.\nUniversitario de Vinto's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to away win.\nUniversitario de Vinto missing 4.2 regular starters; San Antonio Bulo Bulo missing 2.4 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nUniversitario de Vinto's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: San Antonio Bulo Bulo 5-4-1, Universitario de Vinto 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 58% → 54% (-3.1 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+1.3 pts); Away win 19% → 21% (+1.9 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1619331,
  "home": "Universitario de Vinto",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T21:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1793,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "4.82",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2115,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: San Antonio Bulo Bulo 5-4-1, Universitario de Vinto 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 58% → 54% (-3.1 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+1.3 pts); Away win 19% → 21% (+1.9 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}

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