Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0226,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 53% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Debreceni VSC 1.66 – 1.33 Zalaegerszegi TE.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nDebreceni VSC's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Debreceni VSC 4-1-4-1, Zalaegerszegi TE 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.1 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1560255,
  "home": "Debreceni VSC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5253,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.78",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5028,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Debreceni VSC 4-1-4-1, Zalaegerszegi TE 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 50% (+1.1 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts)."
}