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{
  "away": "Brann",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0065,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 43% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Valerenga 1.99 – 2.01 Brann.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nBrann's attack (1.15× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nValerenga's defence (1.14× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nValerenga's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 42% (+1.7 pts); Away win 37% → 35% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 40% → 43%; Away win 36% → 34%.",
  "fixture": 1494786,
  "home": "Valerenga",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4256,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.22",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4191,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 42% (+1.7 pts); Away win 37% → 35% (-1.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 40% → 43%; Away win 36% → 34%."
}