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Entry #1301: pick published

Hash verified

Orgryte IS v Gais: Away win 58% @ 1.54 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T14:21:11.670636+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ecacf1a04f616f08d4503bf335655548c439cb1c82c4c959c95f347a50e61c67
Stored hash: 5017c2e89ccd3c80236a47dc2f602bc9ab4190d282579d3af561dab578af311a
Recomputed: 5017c2e89ccd3c80236a47dc2f602bc9ab4190d282579d3af561dab578af311a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gais",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0382,
  "explanation": "Away win: 58% against a market price of 62% (-3.8%).\nExpected goals Orgryte IS 0.95 – 1.36 Gais.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nOrgryte IS's defence (1.21× the league rate against) adds 1.8 pts to away win.\nGais's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nOrgryte IS missing 2.9 regular starters; Gais missing 5.8 regular starters: W. Milovanovic, D. Collander, R. Thorkelsson takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.8%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Orgryte IS 4-2-3-1, Gais 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 19% → 18% (-1.0 pts); Away win 57% → 58% (+0.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1494302,
  "home": "Orgryte IS",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6188,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.54",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.5806,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Orgryte IS 4-2-3-1, Gais 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 19% → 18% (-1.0 pts); Away win 57% → 58% (+0.8 pts)."
}

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