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{
  "away": "BK Hacken",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0302,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 36% (+3.0%).\nExpected goals Malmo FF 1.79 – 1.46 BK Hacken.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nMalmo FF's attack (1.14× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nBK Hacken's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nMalmo FF's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Malmo FF 4-3-3, BK Hacken 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 39% (+0.7 pts); Away win 37% → 37% (-0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1494301,
  "home": "Malmo FF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.358,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.61",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3882,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Malmo FF 4-3-3, BK Hacken 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 39% (+0.7 pts); Away win 37% → 37% (-0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}