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{
  "away": "Hammarby FF",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0183,
  "explanation": "Away win: 76% against a market price of 78% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Halmstad 0.86 – 2.20 Hammarby FF.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 68% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHammarby FF's attack (1.29× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to away win.\nHalmstad's attack (0.72× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nHalmstad's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nHammarby FF's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hammarby FF 4-3-3, Halmstad 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 9% → 9% (-0.8 pts); Draw 16% → 15% (-1.2 pts); Away win 74% → 76% (+2.0 pts).",
  "fixture": 1494300,
  "home": "Halmstad",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7818,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.23",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.7635,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Hammarby FF 4-3-3, Halmstad 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 9% → 9% (-0.8 pts); Draw 16% → 15% (-1.2 pts); Away win 74% → 76% (+2.0 pts)."
}