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{
  "away": "Heracles",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0466,
  "explanation": "Home win: 18% against a market price of 14% (+4.7%).\nExpected goals MVV 1.38 – 1.93 Heracles.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHeracles's attack (1.25× the league rate) takes 2.6 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nMVV's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nMVV's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Heracles 4-2-3-1, MVV 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 17% → 18% (+1.2 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+0.7 pts); Away win 64% → 62% (-1.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1551843,
  "home": "MVV",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1362,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "6.33",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.1828,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Heracles 4-2-3-1, MVV 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 17% → 18% (+1.2 pts); Draw 19% → 20% (+0.7 pts); Away win 64% → 62% (-1.9 pts)."
}