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{
  "away": "NK Varazdin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0171,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 58% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals HNK Hajduk Split 1.58 – 1.01 NK Varazdin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nNK Varazdin's defence (0.80× the league rate against) takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nHNK Hajduk Split's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nHNK Hajduk Split's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 56% (+3.4 pts); Draw 27% → 25% (-1.6 pts); Away win 20% → 18% (-1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 54% → 58%; Draw 27% → 25%; Away win 19% → 17%.",
  "fixture": 1548542,
  "home": "HNK Hajduk Split",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5809,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.63",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5638,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 56% (+3.4 pts); Draw 27% → 25% (-1.6 pts); Away win 20% → 18% (-1.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 54% → 58%; Draw 27% → 25%; Away win 19% → 17%."
}