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{
  "away": "Cadiz",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0121,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 50% (+1.2%).\nExpected goals Granada CF 1.69 – 0.96 Cadiz.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nGranada CF missing 1.7 regular starters; Cadiz missing 3.0 regular starters adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCadiz's attack (0.92× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Granada CF 6, Cadiz 7) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.2%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Granada CF 4-3-3, Cadiz 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 48% → 51% (+3.2 pts); Draw 27% → 26% (-1.3 pts); Away win 25% → 23% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 49% → 50%; Draw 28% → 27%.",
  "fixture": 1569976,
  "home": "Granada CF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5004,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.90",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5125,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Granada CF 4-3-3, Cadiz 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 48% → 51% (+3.2 pts); Draw 27% → 26% (-1.3 pts); Away win 25% → 23% (-1.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 49% → 50%; Draw 28% → 27%."
}