Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #1288: pick published

Hash verified

Veles v Shinnik Yaroslavl: Home win 39% @ 2.39 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T13:41:10.371600+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 533841f71a54c961c8d7765b27ccd6bc1b1acf21b0bd72a8556abec29ce7d21b
Stored hash: 216365177a7af46d151143da645029474897a725ae05fbbe7827ae2c44769b13
Recomputed: 216365177a7af46d151143da645029474897a725ae05fbbe7827ae2c44769b13

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Shinnik Yaroslavl",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0045,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 40% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals Veles 1.32 – 1.28 Shinnik Yaroslavl.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nShinnik Yaroslavl's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nRest days (Veles 8, Shinnik Yaroslavl 4) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nShinnik Yaroslavl's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Veles, Shinnik Yaroslavl.\nOur probabilities: Draw 31% → 30% (-1.3 pts); Away win 29% → 31% (+1.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1577556,
  "home": "Veles",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3982,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.39",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3938,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Veles, Shinnik Yaroslavl.\nOur probabilities: Draw 31% → 30% (-1.3 pts); Away win 29% → 31% (+1.4 pts)."
}

#1287 #1289

Latest entries

1310 in total