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{
  "away": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0077,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 57% (-0.8%).\nExpected goals Karpaty 1.58 – 0.86 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKarpaty's attack (1.25× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+12% goals at home) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nEpitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nKarpaty's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.8%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Goals O/U 1.5 market moved: over 77% → 81%, under 23% → 19%; Goals O/U 2.5 market moved: over 54% → 59%, under 46% → 41%; Goals O/U 3.5 market moved: over 31% → 36%, under 69% → 64%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 56% (+2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts); Away win 21% → 20% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 57%; Draw 24% → 23%; Away win 21% → 20%.",
  "fixture": 1565499,
  "home": "Karpaty",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5712,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.66",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5634,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.8%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Goals O/U 1.5 market moved: over 77% → 81%, under 23% → 19%; Goals O/U 2.5 market moved: over 54% → 59%, under 46% → 41%; Goals O/U 3.5 market moved: over 31% → 36%, under 69% → 64%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 54% → 56% (+2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 24% (-0.9 pts); Away win 21% → 20% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 57%; Draw 24% → 23%; Away win 21% → 20%."
}